Predictor

Every remaining fixture priced by the model, then the season replayed ten thousand times. Points already banked are kept; the rest is simulated. Each league is scored against its own European places and relegation shape — the two 18-team leagues have a play-off place that a simple “bottom three” would miss.

Ratings are frozen as of 2026-11-04, so a match in May is priced with today's strengths: no transfers or injuries are modelled, which makes title odds far more trustworthy than the exact gap between 14th and 15th. Cup winners' European routes and UEFA coefficient bonus places are not modelled either.

Premier Leagueprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

1Arsenal80.9exp. pts
now 24title 57.1%Europe 98.8%danger —Champions League96%
2Manchester City75.6exp. pts
now 21title 30.1%Europe 95.8%danger —Champions League89%
3Brighton66.5exp. pts
now 19title 7.5%Europe 80.6%danger 0.1%Champions League63%
4Bournemouth59exp. pts
now 12title 1.2%Europe 54.3%danger 1.3%Chasing Europe54%
5Liverpool59exp. pts
now 15title 1.4%Europe 52.7%danger 1.3%Chasing Europe53%
6Chelsea58.4exp. pts
now 16title 1.4%Europe 50.3%danger 1.4%Chasing Europe50%
7Brentford51.4exp. pts
now 14title 0.3%Europe 24.8%danger 6.1%Mid-table
8Leeds United51.1exp. pts
now 11title 0.2%Europe 23.1%danger 6.2%Mid-table
9Aston Villa50exp. pts
now 12title 0.1%Europe 19%danger 8.8%Mid-table
10Manchester Utd49.9exp. pts
now 7title 0.1%Europe 19.7%danger 8.5%Mid-table
11Tottenham49.9exp. pts
now 12title 0.2%Europe 19.1%danger 8.2%Mid-table
12Everton48exp. pts
now 13title 0.1%Europe 13.8%danger 11.4%Drop-zone risk11%
13Fulham47.8exp. pts
now 9title 0.1%Europe 14.7%danger 11.8%Drop-zone risk12%
14Nottingham46.9exp. pts
now 6title —Europe 11.7%danger 14.2%Drop-zone risk14%
15Newcastle44.4exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 7.9%danger 20.9%Drop-zone risk21%
16Ipswich Town40.5exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 3.5%danger 35.4%Fighting relegation35%
17Sunderland40exp. pts
now 5title —Europe 3.4%danger 38.2%Fighting relegation38%
18Coventry City39.5exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 2.7%danger 39.6%Fighting relegation40%
19Crystal Palace39.2exp. pts
now 7title —Europe 2.5%danger 42.5%Fighting relegation43%
20Hull City38.2exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 2.1%danger 44%Fighting relegation44%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Playing for
1	Arsenal	24	80.9	57.1%	98.8%	—	Champions League96%
2	Manchester City	21	75.6	30.1%	95.8%	—	Champions League89%
3	Brighton	19	66.5	7.5%	80.6%	0.1%	Champions League63%
4	Bournemouth	12	59	1.2%	54.3%	1.3%	Chasing Europe54%
5	Liverpool	15	59	1.4%	52.7%	1.3%	Chasing Europe53%
6	Chelsea	16	58.4	1.4%	50.3%	1.4%	Chasing Europe50%
7	Brentford	14	51.4	0.3%	24.8%	6.1%	Mid-table
8	Leeds United	11	51.1	0.2%	23.1%	6.2%	Mid-table
9	Aston Villa	12	50	0.1%	19%	8.8%	Mid-table
10	Manchester Utd	7	49.9	0.1%	19.7%	8.5%	Mid-table
11	Tottenham	12	49.9	0.2%	19.1%	8.2%	Mid-table
12	Everton	13	48	0.1%	13.8%	11.4%	Drop-zone risk11%
13	Fulham	9	47.8	0.1%	14.7%	11.8%	Drop-zone risk12%
14	Nottingham	6	46.9	—	11.7%	14.2%	Drop-zone risk14%
15	Newcastle	11	44.4	—	7.9%	20.9%	Drop-zone risk21%
16	Ipswich Town	11	40.5	—	3.5%	35.4%	Fighting relegation35%
17	Sunderland	5	40	—	3.4%	38.2%	Fighting relegation38%
18	Coventry City	9	39.5	—	2.7%	39.6%	Fighting relegation40%
19	Crystal Palace	7	39.2	—	2.5%	42.5%	Fighting relegation43%
20	Hull City	11	38.2	—	2.1%	44%	Fighting relegation44%

La Ligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

1Barcelona89.2exp. pts
now 30title 79.6%Europe 100%danger —Champions League100%
2Real Madrid78.4exp. pts
now 27title 14.1%Europe 99.1%danger —Champions League95%
3Atlético Madrid72.7exp. pts
now 28title 5.5%Europe 96.9%danger —Champions League84%
4Real Betis63.9exp. pts
now 23title 0.6%Europe 81.6%danger 0.1%Champions League48%
5Athletic Club55.8exp. pts
now 16title 0.1%Europe 53.1%danger 1.5%Chasing Europe53%
6Villarreal55.5exp. pts
now 12title 0.1%Europe 52.7%danger 1.7%Chasing Europe53%
7Real Sociedad54exp. pts
now 19title 0.1%Europe 43.3%danger 2.3%Chasing Europe43%
8Sevilla51.6exp. pts
now 17title 0.1%Europe 32.9%danger 4.2%Chasing Europe33%
9Rayo Vallecano48.9exp. pts
now 13title —Europe 23.7%danger 8.5%Mid-table
10Alavés48.3exp. pts
now 12title —Europe 22.1%danger 8.6%Mid-table
11Dep. A Coruña48.3exp. pts
now 14title —Europe 22.2%danger 7.4%Mid-table
12Osasuna46.9exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 16.5%danger 11.7%Drop-zone risk12%
13Celta Vigo44.6exp. pts
now 12title —Europe 11.9%danger 15.4%Drop-zone risk15%
14Levante43.9exp. pts
now 10title —Europe 10.2%danger 18.9%Drop-zone risk19%
15Valencia43.8exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 9.9%danger 19.8%Drop-zone risk20%
16Elche41.8exp. pts
now 10title —Europe 7%danger 26.5%Fighting relegation27%
17Espanyol41.7exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 7.1%danger 25.2%Fighting relegation25%
18Racing Sant41exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 5.6%danger 31.2%Fighting relegation31%
19Getafe39.1exp. pts
now 12title —Europe 3.7%danger 39.1%Fighting relegation39%
20Málaga30.2exp. pts
now 5title —Europe 0.3%danger 78%Fighting relegation78%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Playing for
1	Barcelona	30	89.2	79.6%	100%	—	Champions League100%
2	Real Madrid	27	78.4	14.1%	99.1%	—	Champions League95%
3	Atlético Madrid	28	72.7	5.5%	96.9%	—	Champions League84%
4	Real Betis	23	63.9	0.6%	81.6%	0.1%	Champions League48%
5	Athletic Club	16	55.8	0.1%	53.1%	1.5%	Chasing Europe53%
6	Villarreal	12	55.5	0.1%	52.7%	1.7%	Chasing Europe53%
7	Real Sociedad	19	54	0.1%	43.3%	2.3%	Chasing Europe43%
8	Sevilla	17	51.6	0.1%	32.9%	4.2%	Chasing Europe33%
9	Rayo Vallecano	13	48.9	—	23.7%	8.5%	Mid-table
10	Alavés	12	48.3	—	22.1%	8.6%	Mid-table
11	Dep. A Coruña	14	48.3	—	22.2%	7.4%	Mid-table
12	Osasuna	11	46.9	—	16.5%	11.7%	Drop-zone risk12%
13	Celta Vigo	12	44.6	—	11.9%	15.4%	Drop-zone risk15%
14	Levante	10	43.9	—	10.2%	18.9%	Drop-zone risk19%
15	Valencia	9	43.8	—	9.9%	19.8%	Drop-zone risk20%
16	Elche	10	41.8	—	7%	26.5%	Fighting relegation27%
17	Espanyol	11	41.7	—	7.1%	25.2%	Fighting relegation25%
18	Racing Sant	11	41	—	5.6%	31.2%	Fighting relegation31%
19	Getafe	12	39.1	—	3.7%	39.1%	Fighting relegation39%
20	Málaga	5	30.2	—	0.3%	78%	Fighting relegation78%

Serie Aprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

1Inter83.7exp. pts
now 25title 53.1%Europe 99.4%danger —Champions League94%
2Roma77exp. pts
now 24title 20.5%Europe 96.7%danger —Champions League79%
3Como74.7exp. pts
now 23title 13.5%Europe 94.7%danger —Champions League70%
4Juventus69.6exp. pts
now 17title 3.8%Europe 88.5%danger —Champions League46%
5Lazio69.2exp. pts
now 28title 5.6%Europe 85.4%danger —Champions League44%
6Napoli65.8exp. pts
now 14title 1.3%Europe 78.2%danger 0.1%Chasing Europe78%
7Milan64.9exp. pts
now 21title 2%Europe 73.3%danger —Chasing Europe73%
8Bologna53.6exp. pts
now 14title —Europe 24.7%danger 1.5%Mid-table
9Frosinone52.9exp. pts
now 20title 0.1%Europe 22.9%danger 1.2%Mid-table
10Atalanta47.9exp. pts
now 11title —Europe 9.8%danger 6.1%Mid-table
11Torino47exp. pts
now 13title —Europe 8%danger 6.4%Mid-table
12Cagliari44.3exp. pts
now 13title —Europe 4.7%danger 11.1%Drop-zone risk11%
13Genoa43.7exp. pts
now 13title —Europe 4.1%danger 12.3%Drop-zone risk12%
14Fiorentina43.5exp. pts
now 8title —Europe 4.1%danger 13.7%Drop-zone risk14%
15Sassuolo40.7exp. pts
now 8title —Europe 2%danger 21.2%Drop-zone risk21%
16Monza38.1exp. pts
now 7title —Europe 1.4%danger 29.9%Fighting relegation30%
17Lecce36.5exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 0.7%danger 37.8%Fighting relegation38%
18Venezia34.6exp. pts
now 3title —Europe 0.6%danger 45.9%Fighting relegation46%
19Udinese33.3exp. pts
now 5title —Europe 0.3%danger 52.7%Fighting relegation53%
20Parma31.8exp. pts
now 8title —Europe 0.3%danger 60.2%Fighting relegation60%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Playing for
1	Inter	25	83.7	53.1%	99.4%	—	Champions League94%
2	Roma	24	77	20.5%	96.7%	—	Champions League79%
3	Como	23	74.7	13.5%	94.7%	—	Champions League70%
4	Juventus	17	69.6	3.8%	88.5%	—	Champions League46%
5	Lazio	28	69.2	5.6%	85.4%	—	Champions League44%
6	Napoli	14	65.8	1.3%	78.2%	0.1%	Chasing Europe78%
7	Milan	21	64.9	2%	73.3%	—	Chasing Europe73%
8	Bologna	14	53.6	—	24.7%	1.5%	Mid-table
9	Frosinone	20	52.9	0.1%	22.9%	1.2%	Mid-table
10	Atalanta	11	47.9	—	9.8%	6.1%	Mid-table
11	Torino	13	47	—	8%	6.4%	Mid-table
12	Cagliari	13	44.3	—	4.7%	11.1%	Drop-zone risk11%
13	Genoa	13	43.7	—	4.1%	12.3%	Drop-zone risk12%
14	Fiorentina	8	43.5	—	4.1%	13.7%	Drop-zone risk14%
15	Sassuolo	8	40.7	—	2%	21.2%	Drop-zone risk21%
16	Monza	7	38.1	—	1.4%	29.9%	Fighting relegation30%
17	Lecce	9	36.5	—	0.7%	37.8%	Fighting relegation38%
18	Venezia	3	34.6	—	0.6%	45.9%	Fighting relegation46%
19	Udinese	5	33.3	—	0.3%	52.7%	Fighting relegation53%
20	Parma	8	31.8	—	0.3%	60.2%	Fighting relegation60%

Bundesligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

1Bayern Munich78.1exp. pts
now 18title 85%Europe 100%danger —Champions League99%
2Dortmund62.7exp. pts
now 18title 7%Europe 92.1%danger —Champions League72%
3RB Leipzig60.4exp. pts
now 15title 4.2%Europe 88.2%danger 0.1%Champions League65%
4Leverkusen56.8exp. pts
now 13title 1.7%Europe 79.1%danger 0.4%Champions League47%
5Freiburg51.6exp. pts
now 16title 0.5%Europe 57.9%danger 1.4%Chasing Europe58%
6Hoffenheim51exp. pts
now 9title 0.5%Europe 55.5%danger 2.1%Chasing Europe56%
7Stuttgart50.4exp. pts
now 9title 0.4%Europe 52.9%danger 2.4%Chasing Europe53%
8Mainz 0548.9exp. pts
now 10title 0.3%Europe 46.1%danger 3.5%Chasing Europe46%
9Werder Bremen46.9exp. pts
now 15title 0.2%Europe 35.5%danger 4.9%Chasing Europe36%
10Frankfurt45exp. pts
now 11title 0.1%Europe 27.5%danger 8.4%Chasing Europe28%
11Köln41.5exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 17.3%danger 14.8%Drop-zone risk15%
12Augsburg40.4exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 15.6%danger 17.7%Drop-zone risk18%
13Elversberg39.6exp. pts
now 13title 0.1%Europe 11.4%danger 19.9%Drop-zone risk20%
14Hamburger SV36.1exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 5.9%danger 36%Fighting relegation36%
15Paderborn 0735.8exp. pts
now 9title —Europe 5.2%danger 34.9%Fighting relegation35%
16Union Berlin35.7exp. pts
now 7title —Europe 5.6%danger 37.9%Fighting relegation38%
17Gladbach34exp. pts
now 4title —Europe 3.8%danger 44.2%Fighting relegation44%
18Schalke 0428.3exp. pts
now 6title —Europe 0.7%danger 71.5%Fighting relegation72%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Playing for
1	Bayern Munich	18	78.1	85%	100%	—	Champions League99%
2	Dortmund	18	62.7	7%	92.1%	—	Champions League72%
3	RB Leipzig	15	60.4	4.2%	88.2%	0.1%	Champions League65%
4	Leverkusen	13	56.8	1.7%	79.1%	0.4%	Champions League47%
5	Freiburg	16	51.6	0.5%	57.9%	1.4%	Chasing Europe58%
6	Hoffenheim	9	51	0.5%	55.5%	2.1%	Chasing Europe56%
7	Stuttgart	9	50.4	0.4%	52.9%	2.4%	Chasing Europe53%
8	Mainz 05	10	48.9	0.3%	46.1%	3.5%	Chasing Europe46%
9	Werder Bremen	15	46.9	0.2%	35.5%	4.9%	Chasing Europe36%
10	Frankfurt	11	45	0.1%	27.5%	8.4%	Chasing Europe28%
11	Köln	9	41.5	—	17.3%	14.8%	Drop-zone risk15%
12	Augsburg	9	40.4	—	15.6%	17.7%	Drop-zone risk18%
13	Elversberg	13	39.6	0.1%	11.4%	19.9%	Drop-zone risk20%
14	Hamburger SV	9	36.1	—	5.9%	36%	Fighting relegation36%
15	Paderborn 07	9	35.8	—	5.2%	34.9%	Fighting relegation35%
16	Union Berlin	7	35.7	—	5.6%	37.9%	Fighting relegation38%
17	Gladbach	4	34	—	3.8%	44.2%	Fighting relegation44%
18	Schalke 04	6	28.3	—	0.7%	71.5%	Fighting relegation72%

Ligue 1projected final table

Champions LeagueChampions League qualifyingEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

1PSG70.4exp. pts
now 20title 68.9%Europe 98.3%danger —Champions League91%
2Lille57.6exp. pts
now 18title 8.2%Europe 72.3%danger 0.2%Champions League41%
3Lens55exp. pts
now 13title 4.8%Europe 62.7%danger 0.4%Chasing Europe63%
4Lyon54.7exp. pts
now 17title 4.5%Europe 60.4%danger 0.6%Chasing Europe60%
5Paris FC54exp. pts
now 17title 3.9%Europe 56.9%danger 0.8%Chasing Europe57%
6Monaco52.7exp. pts
now 15title 2.6%Europe 49.9%danger 1.1%Chasing Europe50%
7Rennes52.7exp. pts
now 16title 2.5%Europe 49.6%danger 1.1%Chasing Europe50%
8Marseille52.2exp. pts
now 15title 2.6%Europe 50.2%danger 1.2%Chasing Europe50%
9Toulouse47.9exp. pts
now 10title 0.9%Europe 29.4%danger 3.8%Chasing Europe29%
10Brest44.9exp. pts
now 12title 0.3%Europe 20.2%danger 7%Mid-table
11Lorient44.5exp. pts
now 12title 0.4%Europe 17.3%danger 7.8%Mid-table
12Strasbourg43exp. pts
now 10title 0.2%Europe 13.9%danger 11.4%Drop-zone risk11%
13Nice41.6exp. pts
now 14title 0.1%Europe 9.8%danger 13.8%Drop-zone risk14%
14Auxerre38.4exp. pts
now 10title 0.1%Europe 4.9%danger 26.7%Fighting relegation27%
15Troyes34.2exp. pts
now 8title —Europe 1.7%danger 46.2%Fighting relegation46%
16Le Mans33exp. pts
now 7title —Europe 1.3%danger 50.8%Fighting relegation51%
17Angers31.1exp. pts
now 8title —Europe 0.6%danger 60.8%Fighting relegation61%
18Le Havre29.5exp. pts
now 2title —Europe 0.5%danger 66.3%Fighting relegation66%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Playing for
1	PSG	20	70.4	68.9%	98.3%	—	Champions League91%
2	Lille	18	57.6	8.2%	72.3%	0.2%	Champions League41%
3	Lens	13	55	4.8%	62.7%	0.4%	Chasing Europe63%
4	Lyon	17	54.7	4.5%	60.4%	0.6%	Chasing Europe60%
5	Paris FC	17	54	3.9%	56.9%	0.8%	Chasing Europe57%
6	Monaco	15	52.7	2.6%	49.9%	1.1%	Chasing Europe50%
7	Rennes	16	52.7	2.5%	49.6%	1.1%	Chasing Europe50%
8	Marseille	15	52.2	2.6%	50.2%	1.2%	Chasing Europe50%
9	Toulouse	10	47.9	0.9%	29.4%	3.8%	Chasing Europe29%
10	Brest	12	44.9	0.3%	20.2%	7%	Mid-table
11	Lorient	12	44.5	0.4%	17.3%	7.8%	Mid-table
12	Strasbourg	10	43	0.2%	13.9%	11.4%	Drop-zone risk11%
13	Nice	14	41.6	0.1%	9.8%	13.8%	Drop-zone risk14%
14	Auxerre	10	38.4	0.1%	4.9%	26.7%	Fighting relegation27%
15	Troyes	8	34.2	—	1.7%	46.2%	Fighting relegation46%
16	Le Mans	7	33	—	1.3%	50.8%	Fighting relegation51%
17	Angers	8	31.1	—	0.6%	60.8%	Fighting relegation61%
18	Le Havre	2	29.5	—	0.5%	66.3%	Fighting relegation66%